It's official, we are in a recession that is likely to get worse before it gets better. Moreover, this recession may have consequences far greater than our pocket books. The collapse of the US and European financial institutions is likely to herald in a changing of the guard. The sun is rising in the East.
A number of recent articles are starting to address the global nature of this financial crisis, something that I think neither most Americans nor the presidential candidates have come to grips with. Or at least they certainly are not talking about the global reality of the collapse of the financial markets.
John Lipsky states, "The tectonic plates of the global financial system are shifting." This is essential to understand as a global crisis demands a global solution. Lipsky goes on to state, "What is novel is that global and regional responses are necessary for success in the current circumstances, not just national responses -- however bold."
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), an organization that is supposed to be the watchdog for global economic crises, has been in the hot seat lately. Moreover, the free market ideology or the Western consensus of the IMF, which has dominated its policies, often to the chagrin of developing and emerging economies, is experiencing a dramatic role reversal. The West has become the cause of this crisis, not the solution. The emerging economies of the world have become the victims, rather than the culprits.
What is clear is that stability within the financial markets is sorely needed. If credit markets were hell they have indeed, frozen over. No one is lending to anyone, creating the ultimate "mood killer." As I've said before, I don't think anyone has any real clue what's happening here, the problem is simply too big. However, I think Lipsky's point that "a new multilateral framework for macro-financial stability" in order to "break the negative feedback loop between dysfunctional financial markets and a weakening global economy" is heading in the right direction.
This however, is easier said than done. It is important to understand that as a response to some of the IMF's former bullying (or advice depending on one's point of view), developing nations such as China are not to keen to get in line with its policies. Moreover, these nations turned to foreign assets to help protect themselves against future foreign shocks and not be left holding the bag as the IMF pushed them to do in the past*. Currently those reserves make up more than $4,000 billion (yes that's 4 trillion dollars).
It is these very same reserves which has financed much of America's credit**. Philip Stevens quotes a Chinese official as saying, "America drowned itself in Asian liquidity." Moreover, these reserves could provide some much needed help, perhaps even the stimulus needed to get credit markets moving again. Katie Hunt quotes Oxford economist Ngaire Woods as saying, "These countries are sitting on large stockpiles of dollar reserves and their dollars could keep [the] 'world economy afloat.'"
Think about this for a moment. The West is in the midst of financial crisis and the beginning of what could be a major recession. The West is indebted to developing economies, especially China. These developing economies have massive stockpiles of dollar reserves. The West is fiending for an infusion of dollars - lots of dollars. While this is quite the role reversal, we should also remind ourselves that the writing has been on the wall. China's 10%+ growth rate has been the distant drumbeat of an emerging economic empire.
As the IMF and other global institutions work to unravel the financial mess we are in, it is highly unlikely that China and other developing economies are going to play by their rules, especially considering they are already underrepresented in such organizations. Thus, an effective global solution to this financial crisis is not only likely to restructure the global economic order, it is required.
While our next President must and should fight to keep America as one of the central powers in the world, the days of Western dominance would seem to be coming to a close. Whether we like it or not, our next President is going to have to navigate a world in which the American economy may no longer be top dog and we're going to have to get used to the idea.
*The IMF opposed moves by Asain governments to bail out their financial institutions in 1997-98.
**These reserves bear little if any responsibility for the crisis - the triple A rating giving to mortgages as securities for these loans definitely was!
Crisis marks out a new geopolitcal order - Philip Stevens
Navigating the Storm - John Lipsky
Time to Reform the IMF - Katie Hunt
3 comments:
Really well done article... It's hard to take in all of the disparate ramifications from the deeply personal to globally transformative likely outcomes.
Makes me want to hunker down in the woods somewhere!
Ever the contrarian, although I agree with your characterization, I tend to grin when I think of this whole mess for a few key reasons.
1 - interbank lending and the money market were always based on trust and whim, there was no collateral for those loans, just trust. The root of the problem is that these dudes simply don't trust each other's numbers anymore. Combined with all the national politics - no one will move so long as the various countries are screwing around on a daily basis - the next morning your move might be wiped out by some new law. People trust, not institutions. When people calm down, things will move back on track.
2 - there's a lot of motivation (corporate, personal, and political) to make it come out right. I just don't see mass ruin as a result. In fact, I just took some money from a nice safe savings account, and bought some shares of a stock (not a mutual fund either, an actual stock). If I had more to spare, I would do more. Clearly, it wasn't a financial institution :-) stock.
3 - the end result will be a better system. Either a more socialist system, with nationalized banks, or a more transparent capitalist system... either one is fine with me.
4 - Like the US election, this is a unique time - and possibly because I like education, I view this all as a really cool opportunity for anyone that cares to find a lot of good information about how this whole system works. Just keep asking why.
Such as: why don't they trust each other anymore? Because they all made bad loans, because global politics is a mess, because Bush is going to be replaced by something different, because... all of the above and many more.
it is the fall of an empire, an economic empire.
It is also the first clear demonstration of a global economy, in terms that most Americans will finally take to heart.
Both good things in the long run.
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